#11 Another Prime Minister Falls
Governments can rewrite Budgets and replace Prime Ministers. They cannot negotiate with the bond market. David Cameron walked away after losing the Brexit referendum. Theresa May became trapped by negotiations she could never fully control. Boris Johnson won one of the largest parliamentary majorities in modern history before political capital evaporated. Liz Truss discovered, in just forty-nine days, that bond investors could dismantle an economic programme faster than Parliament. Rishi Sunak inherited the clean-up. Keir Starmer has now joined the growing list of former Prime Ministers, leaving another government to confront the same fiscal constraints. Seven Prime Ministers have occupied Number Ten since the Brexit vote. That level of political turnover is usually associated with countries facing economic upheaval rather than one of the world’s largest financial centres. Each government arrived promising a fresh start. Each eventually encountered the same obstacle. Britain has grown accustomed to spending beyond what its economy comfortably supports while investors have become steadily less willing to finance that ambition at yesterday’s interest rates. Political commentary naturally focuses on personalities. Was one leader stronger than another? Were mistakes made? Could different decisions have changed the outcome? Those questions matter, but they struggle to explain why governments with entirely different ideologies continue arriving at remarkably similar conclusions. The answer lies a few hundred yards from Westminster in a market most voters never think about. Government bonds rarely dominate newspaper headlines, yet they have become one of the most powerful political forces in Britain. Every Chancellor eventually discovers the same reality. Winning an election is one thing. Persuading investors to finance the promises made during it is something altogether different.
